Neftchi vs Olmaliq: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Istiqlol, Fergana
The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Olmaliq. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Neftchi vs Olmaliq?
Neftchi starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,732).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Neftchi vs Olmaliq
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Neftchi
4-3-3- 7A. Ismailov
- 22Alisher Odilov
- 18S. Perica
- 5I. Alibaev
- 10J. Iskanderov
- 77Ratinho
- 52K. Kouao
- 4B. Ciger
- 15N. Abduganiyev
- 6I. Yuldoshev
- 1B. Ergashev
Olmaliq
4-3-3- 8A. Turdialiev
- 77I. Pešić
- 9A. Kholmurodov
- 5Giorgi Papava
- 17N. Abdurazzoqov
- 88S. Haghnazari
- 19Ahmadullo Muqimjonov
- 6A. Ulmasaliev
- 44A. Karimov
- 7D. Axmadaliev
- 23Hamidullo Abdunabiev
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Neftchi have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Olmaliq have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Surkhon(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Mash'al(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Navbahor(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sogdiana(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Neftchi wins, 3 draws, 0 Olmaliq wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Olmaliq 0-0 Neftchi | Super League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Neftchi 1-0 Olmaliq | Super League |
| May 19, 2025 | Olmaliq 2-2 Neftchi | Super League |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Olmaliq 1-2 Neftchi | Super League |
| May 26, 2024 | Neftchi 1-0 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Olmaliq 1-1 Neftchi | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Olmaliq score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Olmaliq | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Neftchi sit 2nd in Super League (52 points from 23 matches) and Olmaliq sit 4th (39 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 19 | 52 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 31 | 39 |
A question about Neftchi vs Olmaliq?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Neftchi vs Olmaliq?
- The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Olmaliq.
- Where and when is Neftchi vs Olmaliq played?
- Neftchi vs Olmaliq is played on November 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Istiqlol, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.