Neftchi vs Olmaliq: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Istiqlol, Fergana
The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Olmaliq. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Neftchi vs Olmaliq?
Neftchi starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,866 vs 1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Neftchi have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Olmaliq have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 1-4 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Qizilqum(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 3-2 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Nasaf(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mash'al(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Neftchi win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Olmaliq win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Olmaliq 0-0 Neftchi | Super League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Neftchi 1-0 Olmaliq | Super League |
| May 19, 2025 | Olmaliq 2-2 Neftchi | Super League |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Olmaliq 1-2 Neftchi | Super League |
| May 26, 2024 | Neftchi 1-0 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Olmaliq 1-1 Neftchi | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Olmaliq score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Olmaliq | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Neftchi sit 1st in Super League (28 points from 11 matches) and Olmaliq sit 8th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 1 | Neftchi | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 10 | 45 |
| 5 | Olmaliq | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 28 |
| 8 | Olmaliq | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Neftchi vs Olmaliq?
- The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Olmaliq.
- Where and when is Neftchi vs Olmaliq played?
- Neftchi vs Olmaliq is played on November 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Istiqlol, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.