Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 25Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili
The Footlab model makes Aragvi Dusheti the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Merani Martvili. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Merani Martvili (1,427) and Aragvi Dusheti (1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merani Martvili have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aragvi Dusheti have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 2-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samtredia(home) | 2-4 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guria(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(away) | 0-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Merani Martvili win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Aragvi Dusheti win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti 1-1 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Merani Martvili 1-1 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Oct 5, 2020 | Aragvi Dusheti 1-1 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 24, 2020 | Merani Martvili 0-0 Aragvi Dusheti | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 14, 2020 | Merani Martvili 2-0 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Last archived meeting: Aragvi Dusheti vs Merani Martvili on May 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merani Martvili score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aragvi Dusheti score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merani Martvili | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merani Martvili sit 4th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (31 points from 22 matches) and Aragvi Dusheti sit 5th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 31 |
| 5 | Aragvi Dusheti | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti?
- The Footlab model makes Aragvi Dusheti the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Merani Martvili.
- Where and when is Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti played?
- Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti is played on September 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.