Samtredia vs Gareji: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 25Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, Samtredia
The Footlab model makes Gareji the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Samtredia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samtredia vs Gareji?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Samtredia (1,462) and Gareji (1,551).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samtredia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Gareji have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(away) | 4-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shturmi(home) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 2-3 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(home) | 3-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 1-4 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Basa(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Samtredia win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Gareji win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Gareji 3-2 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Samtredia 0-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Gareji 5-0 Samtredia | David Kipiani Cup |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Gareji 3-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Samtredia 4-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Samtredia 3-0 Gareji | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Samtredia score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gareji score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samtredia | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Gareji | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samtredia sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (25 points from 22 matches) and Gareji sit 1st (43 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
| 8 | Samtredia | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samtredia vs Gareji?
- The Footlab model makes Gareji the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Samtredia.
- Where and when is Samtredia vs Gareji played?
- Samtredia vs Gareji is played on September 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.