Merani Martvili vs Gareji: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 23Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili
The Footlab model makes Gareji the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Merani Martvili. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merani Martvili vs Gareji?
Gareji starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,551 vs 1,427).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merani Martvili have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Gareji have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(home) | 3-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 1-4 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Basa(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Merani Martvili win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Gareji win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Gareji 1-0 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Merani Martvili 1-0 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Oct 27, 2023 | Gareji 6-1 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Merani Martvili 1-4 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 15, 2023 | Gareji 5-1 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Merani Martvili 0-2 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Last archived meeting: Gareji vs Merani Martvili on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merani Martvili score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gareji score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merani Martvili | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Gareji | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merani Martvili sit 4th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (31 points from 22 matches) and Gareji sit 1st (43 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merani Martvili vs Gareji?
- The Footlab model makes Gareji the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Merani Martvili.
- Where and when is Merani Martvili vs Gareji played?
- Merani Martvili vs Gareji is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.