Merani Martvili vs Samtredia: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 36Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili
The Footlab model makes Merani Martvili the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Samtredia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merani Martvili vs Samtredia?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Merani Martvili (1,427) and Samtredia (1,462).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merani Martvili have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Samtredia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(away) | 4-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shturmi(home) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 2-3 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Merani Martvili win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Samtredia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Merani Martvili 2-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Samtredia 1-4 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Samtredia 1-2 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Merani Martvili 1-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Samtredia 4-1 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Merani Martvili 1-0 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Last archived meeting: Merani Martvili vs Samtredia on Jun 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merani Martvili score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Samtredia score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merani Martvili | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Samtredia | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merani Martvili sit 4th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (31 points from 22 matches) and Samtredia sit 8th (25 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | Samtredia | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merani Martvili vs Samtredia?
- The Footlab model makes Merani Martvili the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Samtredia.
- Where and when is Merani Martvili vs Samtredia played?
- Merani Martvili vs Samtredia is played on December 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.