Gareji vs Shturmi: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 36Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Gareji the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Shturmi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gareji vs Shturmi?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Gareji (1,551) and Shturmi (1,490).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gareji have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Shturmi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(home) | 3-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 1-4 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Basa(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Samtredia(home) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Merani Martvili(home) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Samtredia(away) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | West Georgia(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gareji win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Shturmi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Gareji 0-0 Shturmi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Shturmi 1-2 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Gareji 5-1 Shturmi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Shturmi 1-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 24, 2024 | Gareji 4-1 Shturmi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Shturmi 1-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gareji score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Shturmi score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gareji | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Shturmi | 0.9 | 0.7 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gareji sit 1st in Erovnuli Liga 2 (43 points from 22 matches) and Shturmi sit 3rd (33 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
| 3 | Shturmi | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gareji vs Shturmi?
- The Footlab model makes Gareji the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Shturmi.
- Where and when is Gareji vs Shturmi played?
- Gareji vs Shturmi is played on December 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.