Samtredia vs Merani Martvili: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 27Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, Samtredia
The Footlab model makes Samtredia the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Merani Martvili. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samtredia vs Merani Martvili?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Samtredia (1,462) and Merani Martvili (1,427).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samtredia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Merani Martvili have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(away) | 4-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shturmi(home) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 2-3 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Odishi 1919(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Samtredia win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Merani Martvili win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Merani Martvili 2-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Samtredia 1-4 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Samtredia 1-2 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Merani Martvili 1-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Samtredia 4-1 Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Merani Martvili 1-0 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Last archived meeting: Merani Martvili vs Samtredia on Jun 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samtredia score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Merani Martvili score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samtredia | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Merani Martvili | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samtredia sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga 2 (25 points from 22 matches) and Merani Martvili sit 4th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | Samtredia | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samtredia vs Merani Martvili?
- The Footlab model makes Samtredia the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Merani Martvili.
- Where and when is Samtredia vs Merani Martvili played?
- Samtredia vs Merani Martvili is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze, in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.