Merw vs Ahal: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Mary Stadiony, Mary
The Footlab AI model makes Ahal the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Merw. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merw vs Ahal?
Ahal is a heavy favourite: 1,617 Elo points against 1,261, a 356-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merw vs Ahal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merw
4-4-2- 8Y. Dovletgeldiyev
- 90M. Ýakşiýew
- 10K. Annamuhammedov
- 14D. Durdyyev
- 13I. Sekov
- 11M. Nazzyyev
- 4A. Mahmudov
- 2S. Bashimov
- 6A. Orazmuhammedov
- 9M. Atagarryyev
- 30M. Saparov
Ahal
3-5-2- 17E. Annayev
- 10E. Tagaýev
- 7Begench Mamiyew
- 5H. Bashimov
- 6N. Towakelow
- 30A. Abdyrahmanow
- 98D. Hojamammedov
- 21O. Orazov
- 3B. Gurgenov
- 4Beglimuhammet Bekmyradov
- 23K. Berdiyev
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 01:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merw have 3 wins, 1 draw and 11 defeats; Ahal have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Aşgabat(away) | 0-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Nebitci(away) | 0-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Şagadam(away) | 2-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Aşgabat(home) | 3-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(away) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Al Ansar(home) | 2-1 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Al Ittihad(away) | 1-5 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Paro(home) | 2-2 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Merw wins, 2 draws, 4 Ahal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ahal 4-0 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Merw 1-3 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Ahal 0-0 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Merw 0-2 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Ahal 4-0 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Ahal 0-0 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Merw score 0.7 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ahal score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merw | 0.7 | 2.6 | 3 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Ahal | 2.0 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merw sit 6th in Ýokary Liga (18 points from 21 matches) and Ahal sit 3rd (42 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 50 | 28 | 42 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 59 | 18 |
A question about Merw vs Ahal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merw vs Ahal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ahal the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Merw.
- Where and when is Merw vs Ahal played?
- Merw vs Ahal is played on November 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Mary Stadiony, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.