Meshakhte vs Gagra: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Vladimer Bochorishvili, Tkibuli
The Footlab model makes Gagra the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Meshakhte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Meshakhte vs Gagra?
Gagra starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,594 vs 1,442).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Meshakhte have 1 wins, 1 draws and 13 defeats; Gagra have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dila(away) | 1-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Samgurali(home) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Samgurali(away) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gonio(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Meshakhte win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Gagra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Meshakhte 1-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Gagra 1-1 Meshakhte | Erovnuli Liga |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Meshakhte 2-1 Gagra | David Kipiani Cup |
| Nov 21, 2017 | Gagra 4-1 Meshakhte | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 14, 2017 | Meshakhte 0-2 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jun 15, 2017 | Gagra 2-0 Meshakhte | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Meshakhte score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meshakhte | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Meshakhte sit 10th in Erovnuli Liga (11 points from 22 matches) and Gagra sit 8th (24 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 40 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Meshakhte vs Gagra?
- The Footlab model makes Gagra the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Meshakhte.
- Where and when is Meshakhte vs Gagra played?
- Meshakhte vs Gagra is played on December 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Vladimer Bochorishvili, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.