Metallurg Lipetsk vs Orel: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 29Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Metallurg, Lipetsk
The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Orel. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metallurg Lipetsk vs Orel?
Metallurg Lipetsk starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,693 vs 1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metallurg Lipetsk have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Orel have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(away) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Murom(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kvant(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2Drots(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Metallurg Lipetsk win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Orel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Orel 0-2 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Orel 0-0 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
| May 24, 2025 | Metallurg Lipetsk 2-0 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Orel vs Metallurg Lipetsk on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Metallurg Lipetsk score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Orel score 0.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallurg Lipetsk | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Orel | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metallurg Lipetsk sit 4th in Second League - Group 3 (38 points from 20 matches) and Orel sit 11th (23 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 23 | 38 |
| 11 | Orel | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Orel?
- The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Orel.
- Where and when is Metallurg Lipetsk vs Orel played?
- Metallurg Lipetsk vs Orel is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Metallurg, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.