Metropolitano vs Figueirense: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, Ibirama, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Metropolitano the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Figueirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metropolitano vs Figueirense?
Figueirense starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,776 vs 1,669).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metropolitano have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Figueirense have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 3-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Juventus SC(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Jaraguá(home) | 6-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 1-4 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 3-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Inter De Limeira(away) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caxias(away) | 2-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferroviária(home) | 2-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Cruz(away) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Volta Redonda(home) | 0-0 | Serie C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Metropolitano win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Figueirense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2021 | Metropolitano 0-0 Figueirense | Catarinense - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Metropolitano vs Figueirense on Feb 25, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Metropolitano score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Figueirense score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitano | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Figueirense | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metropolitano vs Figueirense?
- The Footlab model makes Metropolitano the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Figueirense.
- Where and when is Metropolitano vs Figueirense played?
- Metropolitano vs Figueirense is played on September 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.