Metropolitano vs Marcílio Dias: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, Ibirama, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Metropolitano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metropolitano vs Marcílio Dias?
Marcílio Dias starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,792 vs 1,669).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metropolitano have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Marcílio Dias have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 3-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Juventus SC(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Jaraguá(home) | 6-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 1-4 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 3-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 2-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 2-2 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Independiente FSJ(away) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Azuriz(home) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 24, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Metropolitano win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Marcílio Dias win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2021 | Metropolitano 0-1 Marcílio Dias | Catarinense - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Metropolitano vs Marcílio Dias on Mar 24, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Metropolitano score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Marcílio Dias score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitano | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Marcílio Dias | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metropolitano vs Marcílio Dias?
- The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Metropolitano.
- Where and when is Metropolitano vs Marcílio Dias played?
- Metropolitano vs Marcílio Dias is played on September 6, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.