Metropolitano vs Santa Catarina: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, Ibirama, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Santa Catarina the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Metropolitano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metropolitano vs Santa Catarina?
Santa Catarina starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metropolitano have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Santa Catarina have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 3-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Juventus SC(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Jaraguá(home) | 6-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 1-4 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 3-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Sao Jose(home) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
| May 31, 2026 | Cianorte(away) | 3-1 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | São Luiz(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Metropolitano win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Santa Catarina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2024 | Metropolitano 1-1 Santa Catarina | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Metropolitano 1-2 Santa Catarina | Catarinense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Metropolitano vs Santa Catarina on Jul 14, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Metropolitano score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Catarina score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitano | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Santa Catarina | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metropolitano vs Santa Catarina?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Catarina the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Metropolitano.
- Where and when is Metropolitano vs Santa Catarina played?
- Metropolitano vs Santa Catarina is played on October 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.