Hercílio Luz vs Barra: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa, Tubarão, Santa Catarina
The Footlab AI model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Barra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Hercílio Luz wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
On Elo ratings, Hercílio Luz has 1,686 points and Barra 1,627.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Hercílio Luz vs Barra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Hercílio Luz
Not enough data to predict the Hercílio Luz lineup.
Barra
4-3-3- 10Marquinho
- 9Saymon
- 7Cléo Silva
- 8Peçanha
- 4Vava
- 5Natan
- 2Augusto Potiguar
- 13Pierre Jean
- 6Adriel
- 4Éverton Alemão
- 1Fabián Volpi
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hercílio Luz have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Barra have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Figueirense(away) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Nação(home) | 2-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Marcílio Dias(away) | 2-4 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Joinville(away) | 3-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Metropolitano(home) | 4-2 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Metropolitano(home) | 3-3 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Joinville(away) | 1-2 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Nação(home) | 3-3 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Blumenau(home) | 2-2 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Figueirense(away) | 1-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hercílio Luz wins, 2 draws, 2 Barra wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | Barra 1-1 Hercílio Luz | Catarinense - 1 |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Hercílio Luz 2-0 Barra | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Jun 23, 2024 | Hercílio Luz 0-1 Barra | Serie D |
| May 26, 2024 | Barra 2-2 Hercílio Luz | Serie D |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Barra 1-0 Hercílio Luz | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Hercílio Luz 2-0 Barra | Copa Santa Catarina |
Last archived meeting: Barra vs Hercílio Luz on Jan 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Hercílio Luz score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Barra score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercílio Luz | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Barra | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
- The Footlab AI model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Barra.
- Where and when is Hercílio Luz vs Barra played?
- Hercílio Luz vs Barra is played on October 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.