Mexico W vs Haiti W: prediction and stats
World Cup - Women - Qualification ConcacafQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Pinatar Arena Football Center, San Pedro del Pinatar
The Footlab model makes Mexico W the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Haiti W. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mexico W vs Haiti W?
Mexico W starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,745 vs 1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mexico W have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Haiti W have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Colombia W(away) | 1-1 | Central American and Caribbean Games |
| Aug 5, 2026 | El Salvador W(home) | 4-1 | Central American and Caribbean Games |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jamaica W(away) | 7-0 | Central American and Caribbean Games |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Colombia W(away) | 1-0 | Central American and Caribbean Games |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Puerto Rico W(home) | 0-0 | Central American and Caribbean Games |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea W(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Women |
| Jun 5, 2026 | New Zealand W(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Women |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Dominican Republic W(home) | 1-1 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Concacaf |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Anguilla W(home) | 5-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Concacaf |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Suriname W(away) | 2-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Concacaf |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Mexico W win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Haiti W win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2022 | Haiti W 3-0 Mexico W | World Cup - Women - Qualification Concacaf |
How many goals should we expect?
Mexico W score 3.8 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Haiti W score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico W | 3.8 | 0.3 | 12 | 3/15 | 7/15 |
| Haiti W | 2.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mexico W vs Haiti W?
- The Footlab model makes Mexico W the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Haiti W.
- Where and when is Mexico W vs Haiti W played?
- Mexico W vs Haiti W is played on November 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Pinatar Arena Football Center, in the World Cup - Women - Qualification Concacaf.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.