Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)South Dade Kia Field at Pitbull Stadium, Miami, Florida
The Footlab model makes Pittsburgh Riverhounds the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Miami FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,808 vs 1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Miami FC have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Pittsburgh Riverhounds have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-2 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Detroit City(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(home) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brooklyn(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charleston Battery(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sacramento Republic(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Oakland Roots(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Miami FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-0 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Miami FC 3-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-1 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Miami FC 0-4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| May 4, 2024 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Miami FC 1-2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Miami FC on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Miami FC score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pittsburgh Riverhounds score 1.0 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami FC | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Miami FC sit 8th in USL Championship (17 points from 13 matches) and Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit 5th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 21 | 33 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 17 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 34 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?
- The Footlab model makes Pittsburgh Riverhounds the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Miami FC.
- Where and when is Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds played?
- Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at South Dade Kia Field at Pitbull Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots