Match

Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21: prediction and stats

Premier League 2 Division OneRegular SeasonKick-off on November 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Heritage Park, Bishop Auckland, County Durham

Middlesbrough U21Derby County U21

The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough U21 the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Derby County U21. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?

Middlesbrough U21 starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,577).

54%20%26%
Middlesbrough U21 winDrawDerby County U21 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Middlesbrough U21

4-3-3
  1. 5J. Dede
  2. 10L. Campbell
  3. 17F. Coulson
  1. 8L. McCabe
  2. 9C. Ibeh
  3. 7Lord Listowell Hinneh
  1. 6A. Okonola-Matthews
  2. 2E. Tika-Lemba
  3. 3A. Bangura
  4. 15James Wilson
  1. 1O. Foster

Derby County U21

4-3-3
  1. 10C. Wilson
  2. 9J. Oguntolu
  3. 9Z. Marsh
  1. 7C. Smith
  2. 6M. Tola
  3. 11F. Jones
  1. 3K. Robinson
  2. 2I. Gordon
  3. 5A. Osayande
  4. 5Raymond Offor
  1. 1N. Bilokapić

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:08 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough U21 have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Derby County U21 have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Middlesbrough U21
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 30, 2026Juventus U21(home)1-0Premier League International Cup
Sep 23, 2026Genk U21(home)1-1Premier League International Cup
Sep 18, 2026Aston Villa U21(away)2-2Premier League 2 Division One
Sep 13, 2026Leeds United U21(home)4-4Premier League 2 Division One
Sep 9, 2026Tamworth(away)3-1National League Cup
Derby County U21
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 13, 2026Scunthorpe(away)2-2National League Cup
Oct 10, 2026Brentford U21(away)2-4Premier League Cup
Sep 18, 2026Burnley U21(away)1-4Premier League 2 Division One
Sep 11, 2026Tottenham Hotspur U21(home)1-3Premier League 2 Division One
Sep 8, 2026Gateshead(away)3-1National League Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Middlesbrough U21 wins, 0 draws, 1 Derby County U21 win.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 20, 2026Derby County U21 1-0 Middlesbrough U21Premier League 2 Division One
Nov 5, 2023Middlesbrough U21 1-0 Derby County U21Premier League 2 Division One
Mar 24, 2023Derby County U21 1-5 Middlesbrough U21Premier League 2 Division One
Aug 12, 2022Middlesbrough U21 3-1 Derby County U21Premier League 2 Division One

Last archived meeting: Derby County U21 vs Middlesbrough U21 on Mar 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Middlesbrough U21 score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Derby County U21 score 1.6 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Middlesbrough U212.51.439/159/15
Derby County U211.62.6211/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Middlesbrough U21 sit 27th in Premier League 2 Division One (2 points from 4 matches) and Derby County U21 sit 20th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
20Derby County U2141129124
27Middlesbrough U2140227102

A question about Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough U21 the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Derby County U21.
Where and when is Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21 played?
Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21 is played on November 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Heritage Park, in the Premier League 2 Division One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Middlesbrough U21 and Derby County U21

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