Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Migori Stadium, Migori
The Footlab model makes Migori Youth the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Mombasa Elite. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite?
Migori Youth starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,539 vs 1,399).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Migori Youth have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Mombasa Elite have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | 3K(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Equity Bank(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Kisumu All Stars(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| May 27, 2026 | MCF(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| May 23, 2026 | Kibera Black Stars(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Naivas(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Nzoia Sugar(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Luanda Villa(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| May 27, 2026 | 3K(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mwatate United(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Migori Youth win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Mombasa Elite win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Mombasa Elite 0-0 Migori Youth | Super League |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Migori Youth 3-2 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Mombasa Elite 4-1 Migori Youth | Super League |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Migori Youth 0-1 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Migori Youth 0-0 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Mombasa Elite 2-4 Migori Youth | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mombasa Elite vs Migori Youth on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Migori Youth score 1.6 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Mombasa Elite score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Migori Youth | 1.6 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mombasa Elite | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite?
- The Footlab model makes Migori Youth the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Mombasa Elite.
- Where and when is Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite played?
- Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite is played on October 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Migori Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.