Milazzo vs Sambiase: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Grotta Polifemo, Milazzo
The Footlab model makes Sambiase the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Milazzo. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Milazzo vs Sambiase?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Milazzo (1,672) and Sambiase (1,764).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Milazzo have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Sambiase have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Messina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sambiase(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Paternò(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Reggina(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nissa(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milazzo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Enna(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Milazzo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Sambiase win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milazzo 0-1 Sambiase | Serie D - Girone I |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Sambiase 0-1 Milazzo | Serie D - Girone I |
How many goals should we expect?
Milazzo score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sambiase score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milazzo | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Sambiase | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Milazzo sit 8th in Serie D - Girone I (44 points from 34 matches) and Sambiase sit 6th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sambiase | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 30 | 53 |
| 8 | Milazzo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 36 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Milazzo vs Sambiase?
- The Footlab model makes Sambiase the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Milazzo.
- Where and when is Milazzo vs Sambiase played?
- Milazzo vs Sambiase is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Grotta Polifemo, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.