Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónPromotion Group - 5Kick-off on October 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Francisco Mendoza Pizarro, Olmos
The Footlab AI model makes Union Comercio the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Molinos El Pirata. The most likely score is 1-1. If Union Comercio wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,966 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
Union Comercio starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,570 vs 1,454).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Molinos El Pirata
4-3-3- 25A. Chirinos
- 7B. Cordara
- 8J. Carbajal
- 10K. Lugo
- 6J. Navarro
- 32M. Suclupe
- 3P. Diez Canseco
- 5H. Hoyos
- 4J. Cánova
- 30F. Butrón
- 12M. Quiroz
Union Comercio
4-3-3- 99B. Golúz
- 31Alessandro Pinedo
- 10G. Guerrero
- 25E. Páucar
- 24J. Navea
- 20M. Palacios
- 5E. Álvarez
- 17D. Vargas
- 15Cleyder Vargas
- 40Leyto Gavino
- 28L. García
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 07:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Molinos El Pirata have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Union Comercio have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Minas(away) | 0-4 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Minas(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Ayacucho FC(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Union Comercio(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Llacuabamba(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ayacucho FC(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Ayacucho FC(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Minas(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Molinos El Pirata(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportiva Agropecuaria(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Molinos El Pirata win, 0 draws, 5 Union Comercio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Union Comercio 2-0 Molinos El Pirata | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Molinos El Pirata 1-2 Union Comercio | Segunda División |
| May 3, 2026 | Union Comercio 1-2 Molinos El Pirata | Segunda División |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Union Comercio 4-1 Molinos El Pirata | Segunda División |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Molinos El Pirata 0-2 Union Comercio | Segunda División |
| Aug 10, 2021 | Union Comercio 4-2 Molinos El Pirata | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata on Sep 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Molinos El Pirata score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Union Comercio score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molinos El Pirata | 1.3 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Union Comercio | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Molinos El Pirata sit 4th in Segunda División (25 points from 16 matches) and Union Comercio sit 1st (32 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 25 |
A question about Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Union Comercio the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Molinos El Pirata.
- Where and when is Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio played?
- Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio is played on October 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Francisco Mendoza Pizarro, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.