Monaco vs Nice: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 15Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Louis-II, Monaco
The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Nice. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monaco vs Nice?
Monaco starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (2,087 vs 1,957).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monaco have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Nice have 3, 9 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Le Havre(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Monaco win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Nice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Nice 0-0 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Monaco 2-2 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Monaco 2-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Nice 2-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Nice 2-3 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | Monaco 0-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Monaco score 1.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nice score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Nice | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monaco sit 5th in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Nice sit 12th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Nice?
- The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Nice.
- Where and when is Monaco vs Nice played?
- Monaco vs Nice is played on January 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Louis-II, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.