Montpellier vs Guingamp: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Montpellier
The Footlab AI model makes Montpellier the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Guingamp. The most likely score is 1-1. If Montpellier wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Montpellier starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,929 vs 1,803).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Montpellier vs Guingamp
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Montpellier
4-2-3-1- 11M. Camara
- 18N. Pays
- 19N. Mukiele
- 5F. Tardieu
- 44T. Chennahi
- 40N. Vidal-Cartoux
- 15J. Laporte
- 17T. Sainte-Luce
- 27D. Meddah
- 58A. Sissoko
- 31S. Ngapandouetnbu
Guingamp
4-4-2- 22B. Bokangu
- 10A. Hemia
- 4D. Louiserre
- 21T. Ahile
- 20S. Ben Brahim
- 8F. Da Silva
- 2E. Koffi
- 5T. Ollila
- 36A. Demouchy
- 24J. Dianganga
- 16Adrián Ortolá
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montpellier have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Guingamp have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Grenoble(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Reims(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | PAU(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Saint Etienne(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Nancy(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(home) | 1-3 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Annecy(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Reims(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Montpellier wins, 3 draws, 1 Guingamp win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Montpellier 3-1 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Guingamp 1-0 Montpellier | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 3, 2019 | Montpellier 2-0 Guingamp | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 6, 2018 | Guingamp 1-1 Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 17, 2018 | Montpellier 1-1 Guingamp | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 29, 2017 | Guingamp 0-0 Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Montpellier vs Guingamp on Jan 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Montpellier score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Guingamp score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Guingamp | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montpellier sit 3rd in Ligue 2 (15 points from 8 matches) and Guingamp sit 11th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 15 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
A question about Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montpellier vs Guingamp?
- The Footlab AI model makes Montpellier the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Guingamp.
- Where and when is Montpellier vs Guingamp played?
- Montpellier vs Guingamp is played on January 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.