Montrose vs Alloa Athletic: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Links Park, Montrose
The Footlab model makes Montrose the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Alloa Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montrose vs Alloa Athletic?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Montrose (1,594) and Alloa Athletic (1,637).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montrose have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Alloa Athletic have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 3-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | East Kilbride(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fraserburgh(home) | 2-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ross County(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Motherwell U21(home) | 3-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen of the South(away) | 2-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stranraer(home) | 2-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 0-1 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Montrose win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Alloa Athletic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alloa Athletic 3-0 Montrose | League One |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Montrose 5-4 Alloa Athletic | League One |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Alloa Athletic 4-1 Montrose | League One |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Montrose 0-4 Alloa Athletic | League One |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Alloa Athletic 0-1 Montrose | League One |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Alloa Athletic 2-1 Montrose | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Alloa Athletic vs Montrose on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Montrose score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Alloa Athletic score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montrose | 1.5 | 1.3 | 7 | 3/15 | 7/15 |
| Alloa Athletic | 1.5 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montrose sit 8th in League One (3 points from 4 matches) and Alloa Athletic sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Alloa Athletic | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montrose | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montrose vs Alloa Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Montrose the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Alloa Athletic.
- Where and when is Montrose vs Alloa Athletic played?
- Montrose vs Alloa Athletic is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Links Park, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.