Queen of the South vs Montrose: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Palmerston Park, Dumfries
The Footlab model makes Queen of the South the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Montrose. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Queen of the South vs Montrose?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Queen of the South (1,608) and Montrose (1,594).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Queen of the South have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Montrose have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Hibernian U21(home) | 1-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 0-2 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Cumbernauld Colts(home) | 4-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterhead(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | East Kilbride(away) | 1-5 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 3-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | East Kilbride(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fraserburgh(home) | 2-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ross County(away) | 1-2 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Queen of the South win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Montrose win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Queen of the South 2-2 Montrose | League One |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Montrose 3-2 Queen of the South | League One |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Queen of the South 1-0 Montrose | League One |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Montrose 2-1 Queen of the South | League One |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Queen of the South 2-1 Montrose | League One |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Montrose 0-3 Queen of the South | League One |
Last archived meeting: Queen of the South vs Montrose on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Queen of the South score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Montrose score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen of the South | 1.4 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Montrose | 1.5 | 1.3 | 7 | 3/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Queen of the South sit 10th in League One (0 points from 3 matches) and Montrose sit 8th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Montrose | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 3 |
| 10 | Queen of the South | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Queen of the South vs Montrose?
- The Footlab model makes Queen of the South the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Montrose.
- Where and when is Queen of the South vs Montrose played?
- Queen of the South vs Montrose is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Palmerston Park, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.