Monza vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Monza. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,066 vs 1,960).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Fiorentina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Padova(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | QPR(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Monza win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Fiorentina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025 | Monza 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-2 Monza | Serie A |
| May 13, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-1 Monza | Serie A |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Monza 0-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Monza 3-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Jan 4, 2023 | Fiorentina 1-1 Monza | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 2.0 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Fiorentina | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Monza.
- Where and when is Monza vs Fiorentina played?
- Monza vs Fiorentina is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.