Fiorentina vs Cagliari: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fiorentina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
On Elo ratings, Fiorentina has 2,014 points and Cagliari 1,967.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fiorentina vs Cagliari
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 23Beto
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 42C. Inao Oulaï
- 29W. Gnonto
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 6L. Ranieri
- 21Valde
- 43David de Gea
Cagliari
4-3-2-1- 31P. Mendy
- 6H. Winks
- 8M. Adopo
- 4A. Romano
- 70D. Maldini
- 79Y. Massolin
- 15J. Rodríguez
- 2Zé Pedro
- 33A. Obert
- 26Y. Mina
- 1E. Caprile
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Cagliari have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hellas Verona(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Fiorentina wins, 1 draw, 1 Cagliari win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cagliari 1-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Cagliari 1-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| May 23, 2024 | Cagliari 2-3 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Fiorentina 3-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fiorentina vs Cagliari on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cagliari score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Cagliari | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fiorentina sit 19th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Cagliari sit 4th (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Fiorentina vs Cagliari played?
- Fiorentina vs Cagliari is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.