Moralo vs Azuaga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, Navalmoral de la Mata
The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Azuaga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Moralo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moralo vs Azuaga?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Moralo (1,904) and Azuaga (1,932).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moralo vs Azuaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moralo
Not enough data to predict the Moralo lineup.
Azuaga
Not enough data to predict the Azuaga lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moralo have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Azuaga have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santa Amalia(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CD Zafra(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Jaraíz(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Guadiana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Jerez(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Montijo(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Moralo wins, 4 draws, 0 Azuaga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Moralo 0-0 Azuaga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 17, 2026 | Azuaga 0-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Moralo 1-1 Azuaga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Azuaga 1-2 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Azuaga 1-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Moralo 0-0 Azuaga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Azuaga score 1.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Azuaga | 1.8 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moralo sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (14 points from 6 matches) and Azuaga sit 1st (15 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
A question about Moralo vs Azuaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moralo vs Azuaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Azuaga.
- Where and when is Moralo vs Azuaga played?
- Moralo vs Azuaga is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.