Moralo vs Jerez: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 28Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, Navalmoral de la Mata
The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Jerez. The most likely score is 1-1. If Moralo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,718 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moralo vs Jerez?
Moralo starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,905 vs 1,771).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moralo vs Jerez
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moralo
Not enough data to predict the Moralo lineup.
Jerez
Not enough data to predict the Jerez lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 04:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moralo have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Jerez have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santa Amalia(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CD Zafra(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Jaraíz(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Quintana(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guadiana(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Castuera(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Moralo wins, 2 draws, 2 Jerez wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Moralo 0-1 Jerez | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Jerez 2-2 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Jerez 3-2 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Moralo 1-1 Jerez | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Moralo 2-1 Jerez | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Jerez 2-6 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Jerez score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Jerez | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moralo sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (14 points from 6 matches) and Jerez sit 9th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 9 | Jerez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
A question about Moralo vs Jerez?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moralo vs Jerez?
- The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Jerez.
- Where and when is Moralo vs Jerez played?
- Moralo vs Jerez is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.