Moralo vs Puebla Calzada: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, Navalmoral de la Mata
The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Puebla Calzada. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,605 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moralo vs Puebla Calzada?
Moralo starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,868 vs 1,723).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moralo vs Puebla Calzada
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moralo
Not enough data to predict the Moralo lineup.
Puebla Calzada
Not enough data to predict the Puebla Calzada lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 11:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moralo have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Puebla Calzada have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Quintana(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Plasencia(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Castuera(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Villafranca(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llerenense(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Moralo(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Moralo wins, 1 draw, 0 Puebla Calzada wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Puebla Calzada 1-3 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Puebla Calzada 0-2 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Moralo 1-1 Puebla Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 10, 2025 | Puebla Calzada 2-3 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Moralo 5-2 Puebla Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Puebla Calzada vs Moralo on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Puebla Calzada score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Puebla Calzada | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moralo sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (18 points from 9 matches) and Puebla Calzada sit 6th (14 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Moralo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 18 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
A question about Moralo vs Puebla Calzada?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moralo vs Puebla Calzada?
- The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Puebla Calzada.
- Where and when is Moralo vs Puebla Calzada played?
- Moralo vs Puebla Calzada is played on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.