Castuera vs Moralo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Ruiz, Castuera
The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Moralo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castuera wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,588 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castuera vs Moralo?
On Elo ratings, Castuera has 1,720 points and Moralo 1,905.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castuera vs Moralo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Moralo
Not enough data to predict the Moralo lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 02:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castuera have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Moralo have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Plasencia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Jerez(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santa Amalia(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CD Zafra(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Jaraíz(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Castuera wins, 2 draws, 2 Moralo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | Moralo 2-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Castuera 2-2 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Castuera 1-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Moralo 3-2 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castuera score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castuera | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castuera sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (12 points from 5 matches) and Moralo sit 2nd (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
A question about Castuera vs Moralo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castuera vs Moralo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Moralo.
- Where and when is Castuera vs Moralo played?
- Castuera vs Moralo is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Ruiz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.