Morton vs Ayr Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Morton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Ayr Utd?
Ayr Utd starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,759 vs 1,623).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Ayr Utd have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Partick(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Morton win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Ayr Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Ayr Utd 0-1 Morton | Championship |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Morton 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ayr Utd 2-1 Morton | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Morton 2-2 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Morton 2-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Ayr Utd 0-0 Morton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morton sit 9th in Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Ayr Utd sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Morton | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Ayr Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Morton.
- Where and when is Morton vs Ayr Utd played?
- Morton vs Ayr Utd is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.