Mosconia vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo, Grado, Asturias
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Mosconia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosconia vs Covadonga?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,931 vs 1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosconia have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 10, 2026 | Navarro(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mosconia win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Covadonga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Covadonga 2-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia 0-0 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Mosconia 1-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Covadonga 1-0 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Mosconia 1-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Covadonga 1-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Covadonga vs Mosconia on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mosconia score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosconia | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mosconia sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (56 points from 34 matches) and Covadonga sit 2nd (80 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
| 5 | Mosconia | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 27 | 56 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosconia vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Mosconia.
- Where and when is Mosconia vs Covadonga played?
- Mosconia vs Covadonga is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.