Covadonga vs Mosconia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Mosconia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Mosconia?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,870 vs 1,733).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Covadonga vs Mosconia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Mosconia
Not enough data to predict the Mosconia lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Mosconia have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ceares(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Astur(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Andes(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Condal(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Covadonga wins, 2 draws, 0 Mosconia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Covadonga 2-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia 0-0 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Mosconia 1-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Covadonga 1-0 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Mosconia 1-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Covadonga 1-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Covadonga vs Mosconia on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mosconia score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Mosconia | 1.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Covadonga sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (13 points from 5 matches) and Mosconia sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Mosconia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 12 |
A question about Covadonga vs Mosconia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Mosconia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Mosconia.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Mosconia played?
- Covadonga vs Mosconia is played on October 18, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.