Moss vs Sogndal: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Melløs Stadion, Moss
The Footlab model makes Moss the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Sogndal. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moss vs Sogndal?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Moss (1,729) and Sogndal (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moss have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Sogndal have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lørenskog(away) | 3-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bryne(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ODD Ballklubb(home) | 3-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | hodd(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Raufoss(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fjøra(away) | 8-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sandnes ULF(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bryne(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lyn(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ranheim(home) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Moss win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Sogndal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Sogndal 2-4 Moss | 1. Division |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Sogndal 3-1 Moss | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Moss 3-1 Sogndal | 1. Division |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Moss 3-0 Sogndal | 1. Division |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Sogndal 1-0 Moss | 1. Division |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Sogndal 2-1 Moss | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Moss score 1.7 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sogndal score 2.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moss | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
| Sogndal | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moss sit 13th in 1. Division (18 points from 18 matches) and Sogndal sit 10th (21 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Moss | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 10 | Sogndal | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 43 | 21 |
| 12 | Sogndal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 12 |
| 13 | Moss | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 41 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moss vs Sogndal?
- The Footlab model makes Moss the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Sogndal.
- Where and when is Moss vs Sogndal played?
- Moss vs Sogndal is played on August 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Melløs Stadion, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.