Mosta vs Valletta FC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Charles Abela Memorial Stadium, Mosta
The Footlab model makes Valletta FC the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mosta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosta vs Valletta FC?
Valletta FC starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (1,623 vs 1,427).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosta have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Valletta FC have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Balzan FC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Naxxar Lions(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Hibernians(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gzira United(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick(home) | 4-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 23, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 2-1 | FA Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mosta win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Valletta FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Mosta 0-5 Valletta FC | Premier League |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Valletta FC 4-1 Mosta | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Mosta 0-2 Valletta FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Mosta 1-0 Valletta FC | Premier League |
| Feb 6, 2024 | Mosta 2-1 Valletta FC | FA Trophy |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Valletta FC 1-1 Mosta | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mosta score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Valletta FC score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosta | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Valletta FC | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mosta sit 5th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Valletta FC sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Mosta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosta vs Valletta FC?
- The Footlab model makes Valletta FC the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mosta.
- Where and when is Mosta vs Valletta FC played?
- Mosta vs Valletta FC is played on October 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Charles Abela Memorial Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.