Mosul vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Al Quwa Al Jawiya the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Mosul. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosul vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya starts as the favourite with a 200-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,514).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosul have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Al Quwa Al Jawiya have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Newroz(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 15, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Erbil(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Newroz(away) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 3-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mosul win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2-1 Mosul | Iraqi League |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Mosul 0-1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Iraqi League |
Last archived meeting: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Mosul on May 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mosul score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Al Quwa Al Jawiya score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosul | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 13/15 | 8/15 |
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mosul sit 4th in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Al Quwa Al Jawiya sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mosul | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosul vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?
- The Footlab model makes Al Quwa Al Jawiya the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Mosul.
- Where and when is Mosul vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya played?
- Mosul vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya is played on October 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.