Naft Maysan vs Erbil: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Maysan International Stadium, Al Amarah
The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Naft Maysan. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naft Maysan vs Erbil?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,661 vs 1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naft Maysan have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Erbil have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Naft(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Gharraf(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 24, 2026 | Al Najaf(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Naft Maysan win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Erbil win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Naft Maysan 0-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Erbil 1-0 Naft Maysan | Iraqi League |
| May 7, 2025 | Erbil 3-2 Naft Maysan | Iraqi League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Naft Maysan 1-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Jun 19, 2024 | Erbil 2-0 Naft Maysan | Iraqi League |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Naft Maysan 1-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Naft Maysan score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Erbil score 1.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft Maysan | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Erbil | 1.8 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naft Maysan sit 14th in Iraqi League (2 points from 2 matches) and Erbil sit 1st (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erbil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Naft Maysan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naft Maysan vs Erbil?
- The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Naft Maysan.
- Where and when is Naft Maysan vs Erbil played?
- Naft Maysan vs Erbil is played on October 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Maysan International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.