Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 28Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Heart Of Midlothian. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Motherwell (1,941) and Heart Of Midlothian (2,023).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Heart Of Midlothian have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 6-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 4-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-6 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Motherwell win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Heart Of Midlothian win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Motherwell 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian 3-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Motherwell 0-0 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 3-3 Motherwell | Premiership |
| May 10, 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 3-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Motherwell 0-0 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Heart Of Midlothian score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 4th in Premiership (4 points from 2 matches) and Heart Of Midlothian sit 5th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Heart Of Midlothian.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian played?
- Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.