ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 28Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)McDiarmid Park, Perth
The Footlab AI model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Kilmarnock. The most likely score is 1-1. If ST Johnstone wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
On Elo ratings, ST Johnstone has 1,886 points and Kilmarnock 1,818.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
ST Johnstone
3-4-2-1- 9J. Fowler
- 8J. Holt
- 42R. McAlear
- 11S. Stanton
- 26M. Todd
- 99R. Paton
- 7T. Steven
- 33L. Smith
- 19D. Finlayson
- 3C. Diabate
- 1T. Steward
Kilmarnock
4-2-3-1- 9J. Hugill
- 18T. Lowery
- 11G. Kiltie
- 8E. Ring
- 10T. John-Jules
- 36A. Tshibola
- 21M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 4C. McCarthy
- 14G. Stanger
- 3Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
- 12C. Ferrie
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Johnstone have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Kilmarnock have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hibernian(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-3 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 ST Johnstone wins, 0 draws, 3 Kilmarnock wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | ST Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| May 3, 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Kilmarnock 3-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Nov 23, 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Kilmarnock 0-3 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Apr 13, 2024 | ST Johnstone 0-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ST Johnstone score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kilmarnock score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Kilmarnock | 1.1 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Johnstone sit 5th in Premiership (11 points from 8 matches) and Kilmarnock sit 12th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 5 |
A question about ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
- The Footlab AI model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Kilmarnock.
- Where and when is ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock played?
- ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at McDiarmid Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.