Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 21Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos, Santa Rosa de Lima
The Footlab model makes Municipal Limeño the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Fuerte San Francisco. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco?
Municipal Limeño starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,644 vs 1,477).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Municipal Limeño have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Fuerte San Francisco have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 3-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Inter(home) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Firpo(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Platense(home) | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Inca Aruba(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(away) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-2 | Primera Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Firpo(away) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Municipal Limeño win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Fuerte San Francisco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco 0-2 Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Municipal Limeño 5-0 Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Fuerte San Francisco 1-1 Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Municipal Limeño 2-1 Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Municipal Limeño 1-2 Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Fuerte San Francisco 0-0 Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
Last archived meeting: Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeño on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Municipal Limeño score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fuerte San Francisco score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Limeño | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Municipal Limeño sit 7th in Primera Division (7 points from 6 matches) and Fuerte San Francisco sit 9th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Municipal Limeño | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Fuerte San Francisco | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco?
- The Footlab model makes Municipal Limeño the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Fuerte San Francisco.
- Where and when is Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco played?
- Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco is played on November 16, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.