Municipal vs CD Motagua: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Central American CupGroup StageKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)Estadio El Trébol, Ciudad de Guatemala
The Footlab model makes Municipal the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for CD Motagua. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Municipal vs CD Motagua?
Municipal starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,709).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Municipal have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; CD Motagua have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Xelajú(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FAS(away) | 1-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guastatoya(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Verdes(away) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(home) | 4-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CD Olimpia(away) | 1-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CS Cartagines(home) | 1-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Estrella Roja(home) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FAS(home) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Municipal score 2.0 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; CD Motagua score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal | 2.0 | 0.4 | 9 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| CD Motagua | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Municipal vs CD Motagua?
- The Footlab model makes Municipal the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for CD Motagua.
- Where and when is Municipal vs CD Motagua played?
- Municipal vs CD Motagua is played on August 26, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio El Trébol, in the CONCACAF Central American Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.