CD Motagua vs Olancho: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 5Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC)Estadio José de la Paz Herrera Uclés, Tegucigalpa
The Footlab model makes CD Motagua the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Olancho. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CD Motagua vs Olancho?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate CD Motagua (1,709) and Olancho (1,631).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CD Motagua have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Olancho have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(home) | 4-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CD Olimpia(away) | 1-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CS Cartagines(home) | 1-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Estrella Roja(home) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FAS(home) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Juticalpa(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(away) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Estrella Roja(away) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| May 15, 2026 | Génesis(away) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| May 13, 2026 | CD Motagua(home) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 CD Motagua win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Olancho win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Olancho 0-2 CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
| May 10, 2026 | CD Motagua 1-2 Olancho | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Olancho 0-0 CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 1, 2026 | CD Motagua 1-1 Olancho | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 21, 2025 | CD Motagua 3-2 Olancho | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Olancho 3-1 CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Olancho vs CD Motagua on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CD Motagua score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Olancho score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Motagua | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Olancho | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CD Motagua sit 7th in Liga Nacional (6 points from 4 matches) and Olancho sit 6th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Olancho | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | CD Motagua | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CD Motagua vs Olancho?
- The Footlab model makes CD Motagua the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Olancho.
- Where and when is CD Motagua vs Olancho played?
- CD Motagua vs Olancho is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio José de la Paz Herrera Uclés, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.