Mutilvera vs Pamplona: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Group 15 - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren, Mutilva Baja
The Footlab model makes Pamplona the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Mutilvera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mutilvera vs Pamplona?
Pamplona starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (1,923 vs 1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mutilvera have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Pamplona have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Peña Sport(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Amorebieta(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UD Logroñés(away) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Basconia(away) | 0-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Izarra(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 30, 2026 | Izarra(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 23, 2026 | San Juan(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mutilvera win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Pamplona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mutilvera 2-0 Pamplona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Pamplona 1-1 Mutilvera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Feb 15, 2020 | Mutilvera 0-0 Pamplona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Pamplona 1-2 Mutilvera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
Last archived meeting: Mutilvera vs Pamplona on Apr 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Mutilvera score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pamplona score 1.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mutilvera | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Pamplona | 1.9 | 0.8 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pamplona | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 74 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mutilvera vs Pamplona?
- The Footlab model makes Pamplona the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Mutilvera.
- Where and when is Mutilvera vs Pamplona played?
- Mutilvera vs Pamplona is played on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.