Muttenz vs Thalwil: prediction and stats
Erste Liga CupSemi-finalsKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Sportplatz Margelacker, Muttenz
The Footlab AI model makes Muttenz the favourite at 59%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Thalwil. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Muttenz vs Thalwil?
Muttenz starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,620 vs 1,488).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Muttenz vs Thalwil
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Muttenz
Not enough data to predict the Muttenz lineup.
Thalwil
Not enough data to predict the Thalwil lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 04:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Muttenz have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Thalwil have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Thun II(away) | 6-5 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Black Stars(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Münsingen(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Courtételle(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Concordia Basel(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Taverne(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Locarno(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Dietikon(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tuggen(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Wettswil-Bonstetten(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Muttenz score 2.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Thalwil score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muttenz | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Thalwil | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Muttenz vs Thalwil?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Muttenz vs Thalwil?
- The Footlab AI model makes Muttenz the favourite at 59%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Thalwil.
- Where and when is Muttenz vs Thalwil played?
- Muttenz vs Thalwil is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Sportplatz Margelacker, in the Erste Liga Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.