Nacional AM vs CSA: prediction and stats
Serie DFinalKick-off on August 28, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estádio Ismael Benigno, Manaus, Amazonas
The Footlab model makes Nacional AM the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for CSA. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional AM vs CSA?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Nacional AM (1,834) and CSA (1,836).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional AM have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; CSA have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | ABC(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ABC(home) | 1-2 | Serie D |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Iguatu(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Iguatu(home) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Araguaína(home) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Uberlandia(home) | 0-2 | Serie D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Uberlandia(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| Jul 26, 2026 | São Luiz(home) | 2-1 | Serie D |
| Jul 19, 2026 | São Luiz(away) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Lagarto(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional AM score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; CSA score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional AM | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| CSA | 1.8 | 0.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional AM sit 2nd in Serie D (20 points from 10 matches) and CSA sit 1st (21 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Nacional AM | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional AM vs CSA?
- The Footlab model makes Nacional AM the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for CSA.
- Where and when is Nacional AM vs CSA played?
- Nacional AM vs CSA is played on August 28, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estádio Ismael Benigno, in the Serie D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.