Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion: prediction and stats
Division Profesional - ClausuraClausura - 8Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción
The Footlab model makes Nacional Asuncion the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Libertad Asuncion. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Nacional Asuncion (1,836) and Libertad Asuncion (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional Asuncion have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Libertad Asuncion have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sportivo Luqueno(home) | 2-0 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Benjamín Aceval(away) | 2-0 | Copa Paraguay |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sportivo Trinidense(away) | 1-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Club Guarani(home) | 0-0 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(away) | 2-3 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo(home) | 1-0 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tacuary(away) | 0-0 | Copa Paraguay |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportivo Luqueno(away) | 2-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Sportivo Trinidense(home) | 2-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Club Guarani(away) | 1-2 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nacional Asuncion win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Libertad Asuncion win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Libertad Asuncion | Division Profesional - Apertura |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Libertad Asuncion 2-1 Nacional Asuncion | Division Profesional - Apertura |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Nacional Asuncion 3-1 Libertad Asuncion | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Libertad Asuncion 0-1 Nacional Asuncion | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Libertad Asuncion 1-0 Nacional Asuncion | Division Profesional - Apertura |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Nacional Asuncion 0-3 Libertad Asuncion | Division Profesional - Apertura |
Last archived meeting: Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional Asuncion score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Libertad Asuncion score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Asuncion | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Libertad Asuncion | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional Asuncion sit 4th in Division Profesional - Clausura (9 points from 6 matches) and Libertad Asuncion sit 1st (15 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?
- The Footlab model makes Nacional Asuncion the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Libertad Asuncion.
- Where and when is Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion played?
- Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion is played on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Arsenio Erico, in the Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.