Nacka Iliria vs Smedby: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Södra SvealandSödra Svealand - 20Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Saltsjöbadens IP 1, Saltsjöbadens
The Footlab model makes Nacka Iliria the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Smedby. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacka Iliria vs Smedby?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Nacka Iliria (1,393) and Smedby (1,492).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacka Iliria have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Smedby have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Forward(away) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Örebro Syrianska(home) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Eker Örebro(away) | 4-0 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lindo FF(home) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Nyköping(away) | 1-4 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Syrianska FC(away) | 2-2 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eker Örebro(home) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Karlslund(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Örebro Syrianska(home) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Lindo FF(away) | 0-2 | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Nacka Iliria win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Smedby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Smedby 3-1 Nacka Iliria | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Smedby 5-0 Nacka Iliria | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Nacka Iliria 0-1 Smedby | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Smedby 5-0 Nacka Iliria | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
| Jun 17, 2023 | Nacka Iliria 0-1 Smedby | Division 2 - Södra Svealand |
Last archived meeting: Smedby vs Nacka Iliria on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacka Iliria score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Smedby score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacka Iliria | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Smedby | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacka Iliria sit 14th in Division 2 - Södra Svealand (7 points from 12 matches) and Smedby sit 3rd (23 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Smedby | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 23 |
| 6 | Smedby | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 24 | 31 |
| 12 | Nacka Iliria | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 34 | 17 |
| 14 | Nacka Iliria | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacka Iliria vs Smedby?
- The Footlab model makes Nacka Iliria the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Smedby.
- Where and when is Nacka Iliria vs Smedby played?
- Nacka Iliria vs Smedby is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Saltsjöbadens IP 1, in the Division 2 - Södra Svealand.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.