Naestved vs Thisted FC: prediction and stats
2. DivisionRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)MTM Service Park, Næstved
The Footlab model makes Naestved the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Thisted FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naestved vs Thisted FC?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Naestved (1,724) and Thisted FC (1,689).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naestved have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Thisted FC have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VSK Århus(home) | 0-2 | 2. Division |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Nykobing FC(away) | 1-1 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Brabrand(away) | 1-0 | 2. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HIK(home) | 1-1 | 2. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hvidovre(home) | 1-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Skive(home) | 0-1 | 2. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | VSK Århus(away) | 1-3 | 2. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FA 2000(home) | 0-1 | 2. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aabybro(away) | 9-1 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Middelfart(away) | 1-4 | 2. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Naestved win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Thisted FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Naestved 0-2 Thisted FC | 2. Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Thisted FC 2-0 Naestved | 2. Division |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Thisted FC 1-2 Naestved | 2. Division |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Naestved 0-2 Thisted FC | 2. Division |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Naestved 2-1 Thisted FC | 2. Division |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Thisted FC 0-1 Naestved | 2. Division |
Last archived meeting: Naestved vs Thisted FC on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Naestved score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Thisted FC score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naestved | 1.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Thisted FC | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naestved sit 8th in 2. Division (5 points from 4 matches) and Thisted FC sit 12th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Naestved | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naestved vs Thisted FC?
- The Footlab model makes Naestved the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Thisted FC.
- Where and when is Naestved vs Thisted FC played?
- Naestved vs Thisted FC is played on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at MTM Service Park, in the 2. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.