Naft vs Al-Karma: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on April 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Al-Madina International Stadium, Baghdad
The Footlab AI model makes Al-Karma the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Naft. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naft vs Al-Karma?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Naft (1,571) and Al-Karma (1,667).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naft vs Al-Karma
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naft
Not enough data to predict the Naft lineup.
Al-Karma
Not enough data to predict the Al-Karma lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naft have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Al-Karma have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Mosul(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Karbala(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al Karkh(home) | 3-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Erbil(away) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Naft(home) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Diyala(away) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Naft win, 2 draws, 2 Al-Karma wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Al-Karma 3-0 Naft | Iraqi League |
| May 5, 2026 | Naft 0-0 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Al-Karma 2-1 Naft | Iraqi League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Naft 0-0 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Al-Karma 0-2 Naft | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Naft score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Karma score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Al-Karma | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naft sit 5th in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Al-Karma sit 1st (20 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Naft | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
A question about Naft vs Al-Karma?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naft vs Al-Karma?
- The Footlab AI model makes Al-Karma the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Naft.
- Where and when is Naft vs Al-Karma played?
- Naft vs Al-Karma is played on April 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Madina International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.