Naft vs Erbil: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 19, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Al-Madina International Stadium, Baghdad
The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 49%, against 30% for a draw and 21% for Naft. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naft vs Erbil?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,661 vs 1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naft have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Erbil have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al Karkh(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Newroz(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Naft win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Erbil win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Naft 0-2 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Erbil 3-1 Naft | Iraqi League |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Erbil 2-3 Naft | Iraqi League |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Naft 0-2 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 12, 2024 | Naft 0-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Oct 27, 2023 | Erbil 1-1 Naft | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Naft score 0.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Erbil score 1.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft | 0.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Erbil | 1.8 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naft sit 2nd in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Erbil sit 1st (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erbil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Naft | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naft vs Erbil?
- The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 49%, against 30% for a draw and 21% for Naft.
- Where and when is Naft vs Erbil played?
- Naft vs Erbil is played on March 19, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Madina International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.