Naft vs Erbil: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 19, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Al-Madina International Stadium, Baghdad
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Naft. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naft vs Erbil?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,571).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naft vs Erbil
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naft
Not enough data to predict the Naft lineup.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naft have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Erbil have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Mosul(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Karbala(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ajman(away) | 4-5 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Naft win, 1 draw, 4 Erbil wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Naft 0-2 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Erbil 3-1 Naft | Iraqi League |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Erbil 2-3 Naft | Iraqi League |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Naft 0-2 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 12, 2024 | Naft 0-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Oct 27, 2023 | Erbil 1-1 Naft | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Naft score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Erbil score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Erbil | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naft sit 5th in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Erbil sit 4th (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Naft | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
A question about Naft vs Erbil?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naft vs Erbil?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Naft.
- Where and when is Naft vs Erbil played?
- Naft vs Erbil is played on March 19, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Madina International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.